The Claim:

"Pickens Plan: Step One
Generate 20% of electricity from wind power in 10 years

... using private investment and technology that already exists, we can supply 20% of our electricity needs ..."

-- T. Boone Pickens - Television Advertisement (YouTube video)

It is not necessary to present the results of the detailed analysis that was performed on the variables involved to prove that this claim is overblown.  A Department of Energy report, 20% Wind Energy by 2030, casts sufficient doubt by itself.  The report, written in 2007 and published in May 2008, clearly states in the 2nd paragraph of the Executive Summary that it would be ambitious and difficult to do in 23 years:

In 2006, President Bush emphasized the nation’s need for greater energy efficiency and a more diversified energy portfolio. This led to a collaborative effort to explore a modeled energy scenario in which wind provides 20% of U.S. electricity by 2030. Members of this 20% wind collaborative (see 20% Wind Scenario sidebar) produced this report to start the discussion about issues, costs, and potential outcomes associated with the 20% Wind Scenario. A 20% Wind Scenario in 2030, while ambitious could be feasible if the significant challenges identified in this report are overcome.

The 248 page report provides significant detail about all of the various challenges that must be overcome in areas such as manufacturing capacity, raw material availablility, a qualified work force, transmission capacity, integration into existing infrastructure, storage, and environmental impacts.  It also addresses the technological advancements and significant government assistance, both financial and regulatory, that would be required in order to meet the 20% wind goal by 2030.

The DOE report presents the most optimistic assessment of every variable and assumes significant technological advances are made, yet it still concludes that it would require very great effort to manufacture, install, and efficiently operate the 100,000 new wind turbines predicted to be required to achieve the goal in 23 years.  By way of comparison, 3,230 turbines were installed in the U.S. in 2007 and manufacturers were not able to keep up with demand.

Findings
Wind turbine installations would have to grow at a compounded rate of 20% per year for each of the next 10 years to install the 100,000 turbines estimated to be required in the DOE report.  Possible, but extremely unlikely given projected manufacturing capacity and raw material constraints, not to mention the immense additional cost that would result from the supply versus demand imbalance that would occur as a result of competition for wind turbines from European and Asian wind power initiatives also in progress.

Using the technology and capacity generation rates available today would require more than double the DOE estimate of 100,000 wind turbines.  The DOE report assumes an average installed nameplate capacity of over 3MW.  It also predicts that over 50% of nameplate capacity will be generated, due in large part to technological advances.  In 2007, the average nameplate capacity of a new turbine installed was 1.65MW and total wind power electricity generated was about 26% of nameplate capacity.

The main attraction of wind power to private investors is the massive federal tax benefits they accrue from accelerated depreciation, production tax credits, and other renewable energy incentives.  Many states offer their own incentives on top of the federal incentives.  Pickens is expected to net $60 million a year from production tax credits alone, not including the hundreds of millions that he will shelter from taxes using 5-year depreciation schedules, which is certainly one reason why he is heavily promoting his wind energy plan in television advertising and to Congress.

Conclusions
Mr. Pickens' claim that we could supply 20% of our electricty needs from wind within 10 years using private investment and exisiting technology may be theoretically possible in an academic sense, but is certainly fiction in the real world.

That being said, YourVoiceMatters.org is a strong proponent of all forms of renewable energy, including wind.  However, we do have a problem with massive subsidies and tax breaks that hide the true cost of wind power, which is passed on to the people in the form of higher taxes and higher electric bills.  If wind, or any other source, is commercially viable without significant government financial assitance, then the free market will develop it and make informed business decisions about just how much to produce and how quickly to proceed.

We also disagree with mandates that cause us to deploy wind turbines faster than U.S. manufacturing can produce.  If part of the point is to stop shipping billions overseas for imported oil, we should not turn around and spend billions to import wind turbines that could be manufactured here if we weren't in such a rush to achieve some arbitrary percentage from wind or anything else.

Additional Wind Power Resources:

Advantages and Disadvantages

Wind Resource Potential

Wind Power: A reality check

The true cost of electricity from wind (from 2003 but still relevant)